Business Planning: Are You Leading With a Plan… or a Number?

It’s planning season. And in many businesses, the process still starts the same way: The FD sets a number.

A percentage up.
A percentage down.
Or a target that needs to “fit the budget.”

But here’s the real question: Is that number based on a plan—or is the plan being built around the number?

Budget Led Planning

The problem with budget-led planning is too often, planning is driven backwards.

A financial target is set first. Then the business is asked to reverse-engineer activity to hit it.

That approach assumes:

• Markets stay stable
• Costs behave predictably
• Opportunities don’t change

None of which is true.

A Real Example

I sit on the board of my golf club, and we’ve experienced this first-hand.

We improved our budgeting process. We agree these in October, way ahead of the start of the financial year starting in June. That’s progress.

In October 2024, we agreed a 4.2% increase in subscriptions for May 2025. But…..

In November 2024, the Chancellor announced:

• Significant increases in National Minimum Wage
• Higher Employer National Insurance contributions

Both well above our assumptions.

The result?
Our carefully agreed numbers were immediately under pressure before the year even began. Effectively we were starting the year with even less money than last year!

So What’s Missing?

If finance sets the numbers, that’s fine.

But who is testing them against reality?

Who is asking:

• What’s happening in our market?
• Where will revenue actually come from?
• What are we launching, changing, or stopping?
• How will we improve productivity?
• Where are we investing—and why?

Because you can’t spend money that isn’t there. And you won’t create it without a plan.

Real Planning Looks Like This

Effective planning starts before the numbers.

It aligns, market opportunity, customer insight, commercial activity, and operational capability

Then the financial model follows.Not the other way around.

It also answers the key questions:

• How will we grow revenue?
• Where do we improve efficiency?
• What do we stop doing?
• How do we adapt to economic change?

But Critically—Who Owns the Process?

Planning doesn’t succeed by accident.

It needs someone who:

• Brings structure and challenge
• Engages the whole leadership team
• Keeps conversations commercial, not theoretical
• Turns ideas into executable plans

Not a meeting.
Not a spreadsheet.
A process.

A good facilitator—or integrator—makes the difference.

The Bottom Line

If your planning starts with a number, you’re already limiting your outcome.

If it starts with a clear, commercial plan, the numbers become a result—not a constraint.

What I See in Practice

The businesses I work with, plan earlier, align faster, and then execute with clarity.

And most importantly, they outperform—more quickly and more profitably.